Mar 10
5
– March 1-5 2010 -
**The first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm
Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and
many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.The
first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm
Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and
many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.**
1) **European Unemployment Rate**: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. One of biggest
burdens on Europe is unemployment rate, standing at 10%, double digits, for two
months. In Spain, the number reaches 20%. A drop in this figure is essential for
moving the interest rate, but it will probably take the other direction and rise to
10.1%.
2) **Canadian GDP**: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s unique monthly GDP
has posted three positive months, with the last print being better than expected
0.4%. The upcoming release is expected to show another 0.4% rise and completes the
data for Q4 of 2009 and should provide another boost for the Canadian dollar.
3) **American ISM Manufacturing PMI**: Published on Monday at 15:00 GMT. This
important purchasing managers’ index has been on the rise and jumped up to 58.4
points last month, significantly better than expected. It’s now predicted to ease to
57.9 points.
4) **Australian rate decision**: Published on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. After last
month’s disappointing decision not to raise the rates, there have been different
hints about the upcoming decision, most of them leading to a fourth rate hike, to
4%. This should help the Australian dollar, that was hurt by risk aversion trading.
5) **Swiss GDP**: Published on Tuesday at 06:45 GMT. Switzerland was relived of 3
quarters of contraction in Q3 of 2009, when the economy grew by 0.3%. This stable
recovery is expected to continue and push the Swissy upwards, despite the central
bank’s effort to bring it down.
6) **Canadian rate decision**: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The BOC is
expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and again, the focus will
be on the rate statement. The BOC was very clear about the timing – June 2010. Some
expected a declaration about an earlier move, but this didn’t happen in previous
decisions. Will it happen this time?.
7) **American Beige Book**: Published on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT. Two weeks before the
FOMC meeting which decides on rates, this overview of the economy is released to the
public. This could provide a hint about the next decision, or the next moves by the
Fed, such as the recent surprising mini rate hike.
**Australian GDP**: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian economy
enjoyed an improving job market throughout the fourth quarter of 2009, and this
should be reflected in the GDP as well, showing the strength of the Australian
economy. Q3 was disappointing, with a small growth rate of 0.2%. A strong growth
rate of 0.9% is now expected.
9) **American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls**: Published on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT. This
release always shakes the markets, as it’s sometimes considered to be a strong
indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Last month it showed a loss of only 22K jobs,
better than expected – but the Non-Farm Payrolls were worse than expected. So this
figure should be handled with care. It’s expected to show a small drop of 9K.
10) **American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI**: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. In
the non-manufacturing sectors, the situation isn’t as good as in manufacturing. ISM
showed a score of only 50.5 points, hardly above the critical 50 point mark that
indicates economic expansion. This figure fell short of expectations in the past
four months. A small rise to 51 is expected.
11) **British rate decision**: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Mervyn King hurts
the Pound every week. This time, his chance will come at the decision about the
Official Bank Rate which will probably stay at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing
program (Asset Purchase Facility) isn’t predicted to move from the 200 billion pound
already allocated to it, but there might be hints about its renewal.
12) **European rate decision**: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Just 45 minutes
after the British decision, Jean-Claude Trichet’s ECB will announce the European
Minimum Bid Rate. Also here, no changes are expected, but the complementary ECB
Press Conference will supply lots of action. The Greek crisis will still be in the
limelight.
13) **American Unemployment Claims**: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Providing
the last hint about the Non-Farm Payrolls, this weekly release is expected to show
some improvement after last week’s disappointing figure – a rise to 496K, a number
not seen in a long time. It’s expected to drop back to 474K.
14) **American Pending Home Sales**: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This figure
returned to stability last month, rising by 1%, but this time it’s predicted to fall
again as the housing sector continues to suffer, as we see in the new and existing
home sales numbers. A rise of 1.6% is expected.
15) **Non-Farm Payrolls**: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. After two more months
of negative numbers, the king of forex, the predictions now turned negative. Last
month’s releases were confusing, as 20K jobs were lost, but the unemployment rate
dropped significantly from 10% to 9.7%. Will it be confusing again? Or will we see
finally see good numbers? This event will impact forex trading before and after the
event, for quite some time. Current expectations are for another loss of jobs:
35,000. Also the unemployment rate is expected to be bad, edging up to 9.8%.
**This Market Weekly Outlook was brought to you by our partner**
[ForexCrunch.com](http://www.forexcrunch.com).
Best Regards,
StartOptions Team
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